Presence in the Paint 3: Dwight Howard

         With Dwight Howard's potential free agency in 2012, there has been a lot of talk about where "Superman" might end up. Howard is the most dominating center in the league and boasts the amazing ability to alter the most offensive plays  in a game with his incredible defense. In all my other posts I argued for why the particular player would fit well with the Celtics, but Dwight Howard requires little argument if any at all. The Celtics are a defense first minded team that, with the addition of Howard, would become by far the most dominating defensive team in the league. His presence under the hoop forces teams to double team the talented center often, which would leave open the many hall of famers that are on the team's roster. Not only would Howard fit in with the Celtics perfectly, he would greatly help the team transition from the Big Three era to a new dynasty led by Howard and Rajon Rondo. Now before all the Celtics fans begin day dreaming about the amazing alley-oop and impossible passes from Rondo to Howard and the incredible highlight reel of steals and blocks, the hardest part about making this incredible team a reality is actually getting Dwight Howard on to the team. The two options the team has is to trade for him or hope to pick him up in free agency in 2012, which Howard has set up well by informing the league that he will not sign an extension with the Orlando Magic and that he will test the waters of free agency. 

         Trading for Howard is an extremely complicated process for the Celtics, especially since the team can not take on a larger salary then they trade away. The Magic have expressed that they may not be interested in trading Howard even if he wants to leave, so it is clear that this trade will require multiple players from the Celtics to make up for the loss of Howard's unbelievable talent. Here are a few ways the Celtics could possibly acquire Dwight Howard in a trade (Teams cannot acquire a contract larger than 125% plus $100,000 then the salaries they trade away):

Assuming some necessary offseason re-signings the Celtics roster could be (predicted salaries):

Kevin Garnett: $21,200,000

Paul Pierce: $15,333,334

Ray Allen: $10,000,000

Rajon Rondo: $10,000,000

Jermaine O'Neal: $6,200,000

Jeff Green: $5,500,000

Delonte West: $3,200,000

Glen Davis: $5,000,000

Avery Bradley: $1,524,480

Trade A:

Orlando Magic: 

1. Dwight Howard $16,647,180

Boston Celtics:

1. Jermaine O'Neal $6,200,000

2. Glen Davis $5,000,000

3. Delonte West $3,200,000

This trade would give Orlando three players that could make an instant impact on their team with O'Neal replacing Howard, Davis becoming a strong PF for them, and West taking up either a reserve PG or SG. Orlando may go for this since they could start rebuilding their team with the younger pieces.

Trade B:

Orlando Magic: 

1. Dwight Howard $16,647,180

Boston Celtics:

1. Jermaine O'Neal $6,200,000

2. Glen Davis $5,000,000

3. Jeff Green $5,500,000

This trade would also give Orlando three players that could make an instant impact on their team with O'Neal replacing Howard, Davis becoming a strong PF for them, and Green taking up the starting SF position. Orlando could use the two young players to again attempt to rebuild a championship team. 

Trade C:

Orlando Magic: 

1. Dwight Howard $16,647,180

Boston Celtics (would need an extra $50,000 in salaries):

1. Delonte West $3,200,000

2. Glen Davis $5,100,000 (possible salary to make trade work)

3. Jeff Green $5,500,000

This trade would be most attractive for Orlando giving three young players that could make an instant impact on their team with West taking the SG or PG position, Davis becoming the starting PF, and Green taking up the starting SF position. Orlando would resurrect their teams hopes by bringing in three young talented players to rebuild the team around. 

The last two trade options are possible but unlikely because the Celtics would trade Rondo:

Trade D:

Orlando Magic: 

1. Dwight Howard $16,647,180

Boston Celtics:

1. Rajon Rondo $10,000,000

2. Jermaine O'Neal $6,200,000 

This trade is extremely unlikely since Rajon Rondo is the future of the Boston Celtics. If Orlando were to offer this trade I would suggest rejecting it but it is a possibility and is something Danny Ainge will probably have to consider. 

Trade E:

Orlando Magic: 

1. Dwight Howard $16,647,180

2. Gilbert Arenas: $17,730,694 

Boston Celtics:

1. Rajon Rondo $10,000,000

2. Jermaine O'Neal $6,200,000 

3. Glen Davis $5,500,000

4. Jeff Green $5,500,000

Again trading Rondo is extremely unattractive but this is basically the only trade scenario that would work if Orlando decided they would only trade Dwight Howard if the other team would absorb Gilbert Arenas as well. I don't believe Trade D or Trade E really make the Celtics much better off. 

Therefore the most attractive trade is Trade C, which forces us to give up three of our possible future starters but in turn get a center for the future and the Rondo-Howard duo to build a team around. Danny Ainge may be unwilling to do this trade since he put so much confidence in bringing in Jeff Green, but all of Celtics Nation would be more than satisfied with losing Perkins in order to acquire Dwight Howard a year later. 

The Celtics also have the option of attempting to sign Dwight Howard in the off season:

Celtics Roster Salaries 2011-2012:

Paul Pierce $16,790,345

Rajon Rondo: $11,000,000

Avery Bradley $1,630,800

There is enough room under the cap if the Celtics can get a large core of their players this year to sign a one year contract allowing them to sign them again the following year without cap issues. If this can be done the Celtics would be looking to sign Dwight Howard for $18,000,000 or the equivalent under the new CBA, giving him an equal salary to Lebron James and many of the other great players in the league. This would allow the Celtics to re-sign their own players and a few free agents without dealing with huge financial issues. The potential line up (and dream line up) for the 2012 - 2013 season would be:

Potential Roster:

Rajon Rondo PG

Ray Allen SG

Paul Pierce SF

Kevin Garnett PF

Dwight Howard C

Bench:

Avery Bradley PG

Delonte West PG/SG

Jeff Green SF

Glen Davis?

The bench would be questionable, along with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce who may decide to retire but assuming the Big Three take a large pay cut, the Celtics could put together a very strong young starting/reserve core to split time with the aging veterans. 

Wrap Up

Overall free agency would be the best scenario for the Celtics, allowing them to keep their core players while bringing in the largest free agent of the year. It is possible for the Celtics to pick up Dwight Howard, especially with Rajon Rondo running the point since Howard could be the star on offense and defense while being set up by one of the best point guards in the league. Doc Rivers signing a new contract with the Celtics to remain their coach for a few more years is a large selling point for Boston, and Howard will probably be looking for a proven coach with one of the best reputations in the NBA. After years of watching his team fail at surrounding himself with a solid team, Howard can be confident that Ainge will bring in the players that he needs to win a championship. The Celtics is the best destination for Dwight Howard if he wants to win multiple championships, but Boston will have to figure out a way to bring him to the storied association.

Power Forward of the Future 2: Michael Beasley

                           (Photo by Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)


         Glen Davis has expressed clearly that he wants to be a starter in the NBA and could be looking for another team during the offseason. A sign and trade deal could bring the Celtics a solid power forward that will eventually take over for Kevin Garnett. Although this would probably require a trade between three teams, it is starting to look like Michael Beasley will be on the trading block at the beginning of the season. If the Timberwolves do take a power forward in the draft then Beasley could very well end up on the Celtics if the trade could work out. With Davis leaving the Celtics, the team will be looking for a player that can come off the bench and be just as strong a force on defense while lifting the benches offensive production. Beasley is a solid defensive player with height and speed that would provide similar stats with 5.6 rebounds per game and .7 blocks per game. Offensively Beasley would provide a much needed scoring mentality with 19.2 points per game and a solid jump shot helping to spread the floor. He is a very talented young player that would supply a lot of energy to the team, helping the Celtics to keep up with some of the younger teams in the league. 
         Beasley has had off court issues that could be alarming to some teams, but with a no nonsense coach like Doc Rivers, a strong core of veterans, and a player who has been through it himself (Delonte West) it is unlikely these issues would continue in Boston. Playing under Kevin Garnett could help to focus the young Beasley back on basketball and lift his talents to an All Star level. Although he would have to play off the bench for a few years, he would begin to take more of the playing time as Garnett ages and would allow himself the opportunity to win championships while learning from three future hall of famers. Once Beasley took the starting position his defense would have greatly improved and he would still be in his mid 20's, making him a great player for the Celtics to pick up and help him grow into a large contributor to the team. The major issue in this scenario is that the Timberwolves are not in the market for another power forward, but a three team trade or a trade involving another Celtic player could land Beasley in the perfect environment to help him become an All Star. 


Check Back this weekend for the third installment of the Power Forward of the Future.

Power Forward of the Future 1: Kris Humphries

(Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

         Kevin Garnett turned 35 this year and with Glen Davis looking for a starting position, possibly elsewhere, it is time to start the search for the next power forward. A high energy, dedicated player is needed to back up and eventually replace one of the greatest players to ever wear a Celtics jersey. Kris Humphries from the New Jersey Nets showed this year that he could possess the necessary tools to be the power forward for the team when Garnett decides to leave the game. His energy on the court and his extra effort on each play are exactly the style of play the Celtics need on a team whose star players are aging. Although he may be looking for a large contract next year, it could be possible for Boston to make some moves in order to sign him at a salary that fits in the upcoming salary cap changes. At the age of 26, Humphries is young enough to train under Garnett for a year or two and eventually take the starting spot with confidence. He would provide much needed height and athleticism to the bench and would play well with Delonte West running the reserve offense, since West seems to play well with athletic PFs that can make moves in the post.
         Humphries is an extremely dynamic power forward and would be a very strong replacement offensively for Davis as he nearly matches in points per game with 10 points per game. The Celtics have had issues with being out rebounded, especially off the bench, which is where Humphries would provide great support averaging 10.4 rebounds per game. Defensively he is extremely strong averaging 1.1 blocks per game, with a very impressive off ball effort that could greatly help limit the points against scored when the bench is on the court. He is one of the hardest working players on defense and, after learning from Garnett, he could help to keep the defensive minded spirit of the Celtics strong in future seasons. Humphries has proved that he could be an effective starter and if he is willing to be patient and learn behind a great for a few years, he may earn a few championships of his own. The major issue in having Humphries join the Celtics is finding room in the budget to sign him and finding a contract that would allow the team to keeps his salary small over the first year and increasing it after the cap room frees up. If both sides could find a way to make things work, it wouldn't be surprising to see Humphries in green at the start of next year.

Check back for the second installment of Power Forward of the Future tomorrow.

Presence in the Paint 2: Kwame Brown

                                              (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)

         The Celtics are in desperate need of a reserve center that could give O'Neal the rest required in order for him to stay healthy. Kwame Brown is a very strong 6'11" center that is hitting the market this summer and could fit very well with the Celtics team. The team is in need of some younger players but this can be overlooked in order to bring in three talented centers to split minutes between. Brown has played for many different teams but has been a fairly consistent player in the last few years playing in an average 57 games per season. Under the direction of the Celtics it is likely that he would be able to play in most of the games during the regular season and all of the playoffs when he will be most needed. Brown played for the Charlotte Bobcats last season and although he played for one of the worst teams in the league he was able to put up some strong statistics for the team. The Celtics could entice him away from re-signing with the Bobcats by offering him the chance to win a championship with a veteran team. He has had attitude problems and issues controlling his off court behavior, but the Celtics is a team that forces their new players to change. Doc Rivers can take a troubled player, as seen in Delonte West, and bring them the focus and determination they need to be a force in this league, on and off the court. Laziness and attitudes don’t last long when you have as strong a force as Kevin Garnett at practice everday. The veterans will help to build his skills and teach him the correct mindset to help bring Brown success in NBA.

         Brown would bring a much-needed offensive presence off the bench and his size would bring a presence to the paint that has been missing. Scoring an average 7.9 points per game would give the Celtics a post presence off the bench and his size would allow the other reserves to get open through stronger picks and screens. Brown is not defensively the strongest player but he does average .6 blocks per game and more importantly brings 6.8 rebounds per game to the table. These stats would help the Celtics greatly and the role change of being a reserve would not be too much of a shock for Brown as he averaged 26 minutes per game last season and even less in the seasons before. The Celtics are dealing with a tight cap do to the expensive salaries of their top players and Brown was only paid $854,389 last season. Ainge could strike a deal with Brown for a fairly inexpensive salary, helping with the salary cap issue, to bring in a strong reserve center that could help limit O'Neal's minutes.

Check back for the first installment of Power Forward of the Future tomorrow.

Presence in the Paint 1: Greg Oden

         In 2007 Greg Oden was the number 1 pick in the NBA draft by the Portland Trail Blazers and his rookie contract is expiring this offseason. A player who was predicted to be an all-star and an instant impact on the court has had so many injury issues that he has only played in a total of 82 games in four years. Knee injuries have plagued his extremely young career and he was unable to play the 2010-2011 season due to a necessary micro-fracture surgery on his injured left knee. He will be unable to really work on his game until September due to restrictions from the surgery. It would be a large gamble for the Celtics to attempt to obtain the risky center, but a change of coaching and training could be the key to bringing Oden back to the dominating play the NBA saw when he was healthy. The Celtics showed that they can battle knee injuries when they nursed Jermaine O'Neal back to health and used him as the dominating force in the paint that they needed desperately during the playoffs. Jermaine's inability to play long enough to control the game and a lack of talented reserves ended up being the team's greatest weakness, and Oden would be a great step in fixing this major flaw.
         Oden is coming off of a $6 million contract that the Trailblazers have an option to pick up for one more year at $8.8 million, which seems extremely unlikely due to his health issues. With Oden hitting free agency this summer few teams will be interested in risking a large sum of money for the center giving the Celtics the opportunity to sign Oden for possibly less then his current $6 million contract. If the Celtics were to sign him they would be guaranteed a little under two months to get Oden back into basketball shape and ready for the regular season. Although his minutes would be limited at first, the team could carry itself through the first month or two of the season without requiring him to play major minutes (as long as O'Neal remains healthy.) A possible lockout could threaten to push the season back farther, giving the Celtics a bit of an advantage to get Oden into further shape on his own and possibly allow the team some time to get used to each other away from the organization.
         If Oden could return to the Celtics healthy the team could see great production from him both offensively and defensively. The 7-foot center would not only be a presence in the paint, making people think twice before driving to the lane, but could provide a much needed defensive advantage with 1.4 blocks per game and 7.3 rebounds per game (a much needed statistic after the Celtics were out rebounded greatly by the Heat). He averaged 9.4 points per game during the games he played showing that he could be a valuable offensive piece to the team as well, not to mention the fact that he will be setup by possibly the greatest passer in the NBA with Rondo at the point. Rondo's vision and athletic ability would allow Oden the opportunity to receive the ball in the perfect position to score and bring back the athleticism that Oden once possessed. The Celtics outside threat would also pull defenders from the rim giving Oden more room to work with the ball and a greater opportunity to crash the boards for offensive rebounds.
         Oden could be the much needed answer for a back up center that the Celtics have been looking for,  and his young age could give the team the opportunity to push for another championship while preparing for the transition to the post Big Three era. The thing to keep in mind with Oden is that he is young and if he were to return healthy and become a consistent player for the Celtics his numbers would greatly improve the team now and in the future. Not to mention the fact that the price of his contract would be considered a steal if he were able to play at his potential production level. The major flaw in picking up the center is the necessity of signing a third center due to the health risks of both Oden and O'Neal, but there are a few quality centers hitting the market this summer that could be viable reserves to keep down their minutes.

Check back for the second installment of Presence in the Paint (The Hunt for a Center) tomorrow.

The C's of the Future

With Ray Allen exercising the player option to return to the Celtics for another year at $10 million dollars, it is clear that the Big Three still want another shot at a title. Although many of the key players that will be the cornerstone of the Celtics roster are returning, it is time to begin to search for possible options the team will have in surrounding their stars with the best supporting cast possible. Currently the players that are under contract for the upcoming year are:
Kevin Garnett PF ($21.2 Million)
Paul Pierce SF ($15.3 Million)
Ray Allen SG ($10 Million)
Rajon Rondo PG ($10 Million)
Jermaine O'Neal C ($6.2 Million)
Avery Bradley PG ($1.52 Million)

Assuming the Celtics will attempt to re-sign Jeff Green and Delonte West, the team will be pushing the salary cap restrictions like last year and will most likely be looking for answers in trades or drafting. The Celtics will be looking to sign eight players(including Green and West) this offseason to bring the roster back to 14 players. The starting line up appears to be set with Rondo at point, Ray at SG, Pierce at SF, Garnett at PF, and Jermaine at C if he can be healthy for the following season. West showed that he can be a solid back up for Rondo and Ainge seems to trust in the idea of Green becoming the future replacement for Pierce, leaving holes mainly at the center, power forward, and shooting guard positions. With the current collective bargaining agreement expiring on June 30 it is hard to tell what the new salary cap may look like and what the rules for free agent signings will become, but over the next few weeks different possibilities on the roster for next year will be presented.

Check back daily for posts regarding players the Celtics could add to the roster. The first installment of Presence in the Paint (The Hunt for a Center) will be up later today.

Season Wrap Up

Celtics fans expected nothing less than "Banner 18" this season, but numerous injuries and controversial trades seemed to changed the entire chemistry of the strong team. After running over the first round New York Knicks, the Celtics were knocked out by the younger and healthier Miami Heat. Many questions remain on the minds of Boston fans who wonder where this team went wrong on the journey to another championship. Looking back on the season it may be possible to answer the questions that linger:

1. Did the Perkins trade destroy any chance of success?

           Kendrick Perkins was a key piece to the success the Celtics had last year and it was said many times that the Celtics could not lose if the entire starting line up were to be healthy. The team seemed to finally have all the pieces when Perkins stepped back on to the court and the team continued to play at a high level. Fans began to feel that Banner 18 was within sights as the Celtics greats took the floor and looked young once again. In the blink of an eye  Perkins was shipped off to the Oklahoma Thunder along with reserve Nate Robinson in return for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic. Although both Green and Krstic did not play up to the level expected of them for most of the season and entering into the final games of the playoffs, the Perkins trade can not take the entire blame for the team's failure. Although team chemistry fell apart soon after these trades (including the departure of most of the Celtics bench), the Celtics would have been in a much worse position without them. All of the players traded away, including Perkins at the time, had a major injury that would have left the Celtics with barely enough players to dress a full starting line up and bench. These issues required new players to join the team with or without the Perkins trade, which would have equally hurt the team chemistry at the time. With chemistry being an issue whether Perkins had been traded or not, the real issue was the health of Shaquille O'Neal. If Shaq were healthy the Celtics may have had a better series against the Heat and could have moved on, but his injury left the team short at the Center position. It left the paint open for the Heat to drive to the rim, with Jermaine O'Neal being the only player to really slow down the athletic Miami starters. If Perkins had remained on the team we may have had a stronger rotation in the Center position, which would have helped on the defensive side of the ball. However the big issue in the series was the Celtics inability to score on multiple 10 minute drives causing the Heat to take slight leads and Perkins lack of offensive ability would not have helped in these situations. Although the Perkins trade did shake things up, it was the right choice at the time it was made and left the Celtics with one or two players that could be a part of the future roster, especially with the high chance that the Celtics would have been unable to re-sign Perk at the end of the season. 

2. What injury caused the Celtics the most problems?

           There were many injuries that plagued the Celtics at the end of the season, whether it was Shaq's achilles, Rondo's elbow, or the numerous injuries that took the life out of the remaining star players. Danny Ainge put complete faith in the aging Shaq's ability to return from injuries that took him from the court for most of the season, and it proved to fail as Shaq limped off the court during the Playoffs. Without Shaq the other O'Neal took the grunt of the work with an ailing wrist and many small injuries that limited his minutes. Although Jermaine played extremely well for the minutes he played, the lack of Shaq's presence left a hole in the line up that was not even remotely filled by Nenad Krstic. Pierce and Allen were banged up during the final round of the Celtic's Playoff, possibly causing them to play below their full potential for the year and forcing Doc Rivers to rely heavily on a bench that played short of expectations. 

           As Rajon Rondo writhed in pain on the ground in the 3rd Quarter of Game 3, fans watched the remaining hope for a championship slip away. Although he returned and gave the Celtics one of the greatest come back performances in a storied franchise history, his inability to use the hurt arm became apparent. Although Rondo playing with one arm is still a much more effective point guard than most in the league, it took the largest advantage Boston had over the Miami Heat out of the entire series. The speed and vision of Rondo was lost, and the elders of the team were unable to pick up the pieces. In the games to follow the Rondo injury single handedly took the remaining wind from the sails of Boston and ended their playoff hopes. 

3. Which players inefficiency in the Playoffs caused the most issues?

           

           Injuries and age required the Celtics to rely heavily on a bench that was neither ready or able to play up to the level necessary in order to advance to the next round. One player in particular was expected to come off the bench and play strongly defensively in the power forward and center positions. Glen Davis was considered one of the strongest sixth-man in the league during the regular season and was playing at an extremely high level during most of the season. However, during the playoffs he went from one of the most effective players to being the single most ineffective players that caused the bench to fail greatly. He was unable to score at a high percentage and was being generally outplayed on both ends of the floor. He had glimpses of his strong performances on a few plays each game, but he was often out rebounded and out scored. He did not provide the defensive relief that we needed when the starters left the court and caused many break downs in the offensive plans. His inability to play at a high level allowed the Heat to pile on the points as the starters grabbed a breather and caused many leads held by the Celtics to dwindle. Glen Davis was a major key to the benches success and overall led to the inefficiency of the Celtics reserve.

This season did not reach the high expectations of Boston fans, but it did show that the Big 4 have plenty of basketball left in them and with a better supporting cast may be able to hang "Banner 18" after all. Check in for postings over the next few weeks about possible solutions to the Celtics needs and what moves could be made to make the team even stronger.